TSLA / NASDAQ

Tesla

特斯拉结合了电动车、储能、充电网络、软件、自动驾驶和机器人愿景。

投资逻辑

长期投资逻辑取决于特斯拉能否把制造规模和车队数据转化为更高利润率的自动驾驶、能源和软件业务。

Mission Company Research Page

当前研究假设

长期投资逻辑取决于特斯拉能否把制造规模和车队数据转化为更高利润率的自动驾驶、能源和软件业务。

Confidence: manual / Updated: 2026-06-02 / Manual input

Tesla Autonomy Dashboard

The autonomy data flywheel

Checked 2026-07-26

FSD miles → real-world data → model improvement → Robotaxi deployment → revenue optionality

Autonomy data is compiled from Tesla official pages, public regulators, media reports, and third-party trackers. Figures may be incomplete or estimated.

Cumulative FSD Miles

12.73B

Latest 1B Interval

39 days

FSD Available Markets

12

Robotaxi Authorized Fleet

175

Robotaxi Cities

7

FSD Miles Data Flywheel

Real-world data accumulation

Cumulative FSD Miles

Official counter anchors and derived crossing dates / billion miles

53d43d31d37d39d
2025-12-27 2026-07-18

The 7B-9B dates are reconstructed estimates and remain subject to source review. The 10B crossing was confirmed on 2026-05-03. Tesla's live official counter showed 11,005,956,302 miles on 2026-06-10, placing the estimated 11B crossing around 2026-06-09. Tesla states that the counter increments at the average rate of fleet mileage per second. Estimated dates are not separate Tesla announcements.

4B→5B ≈ 75d · estimated 5B→6B ≈ 60d · estimated 6B→7B ≈ 60d · estimated

Robotaxi Deployment Dashboard

Official regulatory footprint

Authorized Robotaxi Fleet

Texas DMV registered VIN count / vehicles

175 vehicles
2026-05-28 2026-07-16
Miami, Texas operating Orlando, Texas operating Tampa, Texas operating Florida, Texas operating and Austin, Texas operating Dallas, Texas operating Houston, Texas operating

Texas DMV authorization AV8313426653583. Fleet size is the count of VINs listed in the Texas DMV public registration.

FSD Coverage Map

Interactive world coverage

Fiji Tanzania W. Sahara Canada: available United States: available Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Papua New Guinea Indonesia Argentina Chile Dem. Rep. Congo Somalia Kenya Sudan Chad Haiti Dominican Rep. Russia Bahamas Falkland Is. Norway Greenland Fr. S. Antarctic Lands Timor-Leste South Africa Lesotho Mexico: available Uruguay Brazil Bolivia Peru Colombia Panama Costa Rica Nicaragua Honduras El Salvador Guatemala Belize Venezuela Guyana Suriname France Ecuador Puerto Rico: available Jamaica Cuba Zimbabwe Botswana Namibia Senegal Mali Mauritania Benin Niger Nigeria Cameroon Togo Ghana Côte d'Ivoire Guinea Guinea-Bissau Liberia Sierra Leone Burkina Faso Central African Rep. Congo Gabon Eq. Guinea Zambia Malawi Mozambique eSwatini Angola Burundi Israel Lebanon Madagascar Palestine Gambia Tunisia Algeria Jordan United Arab Emirates Qatar Kuwait Iraq Oman Vanuatu Cambodia Thailand Laos Myanmar Vietnam North Korea South Korea: available Mongolia India Bangladesh Bhutan Nepal Pakistan Afghanistan Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan Turkmenistan Iran Syria Armenia Sweden Belarus Ukraine Poland Austria Hungary Moldova Romania Lithuania: available Latvia Estonia: available Germany Bulgaria Greece Turkey Albania Croatia Switzerland Luxembourg Belgium: available Netherlands: available Portugal Spain Ireland New Caledonia Solomon Is. New Zealand: available Australia: available Sri Lanka China: limited Taiwan Italy Denmark: available United Kingdom Iceland Azerbaijan Georgia Philippines Malaysia Brunei Slovenia Finland Slovakia Czechia Eritrea Japan Paraguay Yemen Saudi Arabia Antarctica N. Cyprus Cyprus Morocco Egypt Libya Ethiopia Djibouti Somaliland Uganda Rwanda Bosnia and Herz. Macedonia Serbia Montenegro Kosovo Trinidad and Tobago S. Sudan

Selected market

Select a lit market

Click a highlighted country to view its coverage status.

available limited unavailable

Market colors indicate Tesla product availability only. Geographic outlines follow the Natural Earth dataset for visualization and do not express a position on sovereignty or political status.

Autonomy Milestones

Machine-detected change log

2026-07-22

Tesla Robotaxi Adds Tampa

Tampa, Texas was added to the tracked Robotaxi deployment footprint.

Read milestone article

2026-07-22

Tesla Robotaxi Adds Orlando

Orlando, Texas was added to the tracked Robotaxi deployment footprint.

Read milestone article

2026-07-18

Tesla FSD Reaches 12 Billion Miles

Cumulative FSD (Supervised) miles advanced from 11B to 12B.

Read milestone article

2026-07-16

Tesla Robotaxi VIN Count Changes More Than 10%

Texas DMV VIN count changed from 117 to 175 (49.6%).

Read milestone article

2026-07-15

Tesla Robotaxi VIN Count Changes More Than 10%

Texas DMV VIN count changed from 102 to 117 (14.7%).

Read milestone article

2026-07-04

Tesla Robotaxi Adds and Austin

and Austin, Texas was added to the tracked Robotaxi deployment footprint.

Read milestone article

2026-07-04

Tesla Robotaxi Adds Florida

Florida, Texas was added to the tracked Robotaxi deployment footprint.

Read milestone article

2026-07-04

Tesla Robotaxi Adds Miami

Miami, Texas was added to the tracked Robotaxi deployment footprint.

Read milestone article

2026-07-03

Tesla Robotaxi VIN Count Changes More Than 10%

Texas DMV VIN count changed from 84 to 102 (21.4%).

Read milestone article

2026-07-03

Tesla Robotaxi Registered Fleet Crosses 100

Texas DMV now lists 102 registered vehicles for Tesla Robotaxi, LLC.

Read milestone article

2026-06-28

Tesla Robotaxi VIN Count Changes More Than 10%

Texas DMV VIN count changed from 69 to 84 (21.7%).

Read milestone article

2026-06-18

Tesla FSD Becomes Available in Belgium

Belgium changed to available in the tracked FSD coverage data.

Read milestone article

2026-06-18

Tesla FSD Becomes Available in South Korea

South Korea changed to available in the tracked FSD coverage data.

Read milestone article
Source health notes
  • 2026-06-10 / Tesla FSD Safety page: The official page was reachable through public indexing, but direct automated HTML retrieval was blocked by Akamai. Existing official milestones were retained.
  • 2026-06-10 / Tesla FSD Safety page: 403 Forbidden
  • 2026-06-18 / Tesla FSD Safety page: 403 Forbidden
  • 2026-06-18 / Tesla FSD Safety page: 403 Forbidden

核心业务指标

Core Business Metrics / 使用 Tesla 官方季度披露。未确认区间保持空白。

2026Q1

vehicle deliveries

358,023

2026Q1 / vehicles

+6.3 % YoY

energy storage deployed gwh

8.8

2026Q1 / GWh

-15.4 % YoY

active fsd subscriptions millions

1.3

2026Q1 / millions

+50.6 % YoY

free cash flow

1,444

2026Q1 / USD millions

+117.5 % YoY

operating margin

4.2

2026Q1 / percent

+2.1 pts YoY

核心指标趋势图

Core Metric Trends / 使用 Tesla 官方季度披露，季度任务自动更新。当前展示 2025Q1–2026Q1 可比季度序列。

Deliveries Trend

vehicles

2025Q1 2026Q1

Energy Storage Deployed Trend

GWh

2025Q1 2026Q1

Active FSD Subscriptions Trend

millions

2025Q1 2026Q1

Free Cash Flow Trend

USD millions

2025Q1 2026Q1

Operating Margin Trend

percent

2025Q1 2026Q1

Musk 薪酬里程碑

Performance Award Tracker / 页面只展示机械进度。是否解锁 tranche 仍以董事会认证为准。

Award

2025 CEO Performance Award

Total tranches

12

Achieved tranches

--

01

达到一档持续市值门槛

同时检查 6 个月和 30 天平均市值，不按单日股价判断。

02

完成一个未使用的运营里程碑

产品交付、FSD、Robotaxi、Bots 或 Adjusted EBITDA 中任选一项。

03

董事会认证后解锁 1 个 tranche

还需满足任职条件；机械进度不等于正式解锁。

持续市值门槛

每解锁一档 tranche，需要匹配一档更高的持续市值门槛。蓝色填充仅表示最近可验证市值快照，不等于持续性认证结果。

最近市值快照 / 第一档持续市值门槛

$1.26T / $2.0T · 63.1%

单日快照机械进度，仅用于观察距离第一档门槛的位置；持续市值仍需同时检查 6 个月和 30 天平均值。

完整门槛坐标轴

$2.0T
$2.5T
$3.0T
$3.5T
$4.0T
$4.5T
$5.0T
$5.5T
$6.0T
$6.5T
$7.5T
$8.5T
$1.0T

运营里程碑进度

进度百分比 = 最新官方观测值 / 目标值。未披露时保持空白，不补猜测值。每个已认证且未使用的运营里程碑，可与一档持续市值门槛配对。

20 million Tesla vehicles delivered

46.0%

Latest observed: 9.2 million vehicles / Target: 20 million vehicles / 2026Q1

10 million active FSD subscriptions

12.8%

Latest observed: 1.28 million subscriptions / Target: 10 million subscriptions / 2026Q1

1 million Bots delivered

--

Latest observed: Not disclosed

1 million Robotaxis in commercial operation

--

Latest observed: Not disclosed

$50 billion Adjusted EBITDA

30.9%

Latest observed: 15.45 USD billions / Target: 50 USD billions / 2026Q1

$80 billion Adjusted EBITDA

19.3%

Latest observed: 15.45 USD billions / Target: 80 USD billions / 2026Q1

$130 billion Adjusted EBITDA

11.9%

Latest observed: 15.45 USD billions / Target: 130 USD billions / 2026Q1

$210 billion Adjusted EBITDA

7.4%

Latest observed: 15.45 USD billions / Target: 210 USD billions / 2026Q1

$300 billion Adjusted EBITDA

5.1%

Latest observed: 15.45 USD billions / Target: 300 USD billions / 2026Q1

$400 billion Adjusted EBITDA

3.9%

Latest observed: 15.45 USD billions / Target: 400 USD billions / 2026Q1

$500 billion Adjusted EBITDA

3.1%

Latest observed: 15.45 USD billions / Target: 500 USD billions / 2026Q1

$600 billion Adjusted EBITDA

2.6%

Latest observed: 15.45 USD billions / Target: 600 USD billions / 2026Q1

Official filing

研究时间线

Mission Timeline / 自动维护与人工校订并存。

2026-04-22

earnings

Tesla released its 2026Q1 update

Tesla released its First Quarter 2026 Update and reported progress across Robotaxi, FSD (Supervised), Optimus, energy and AI infrastructure.

Official source

2026-04-02

delivery

Tesla reported 2026Q1 production, deliveries and deployments

Tesla reported 408,386 vehicles produced, 358,023 vehicles delivered and 8.8 GWh of energy storage deployed.

Official source

2025-11-06

compensation

Shareholders approved the 2025 CEO Performance Award

Tesla disclosed shareholder approval of the 2025 CEO Performance Award at the Annual Meeting.

Official source

2023-04-05

energy

Tesla published Master Plan Part 3

Tesla published a proposed path to a sustainable global energy economy through end-use electrification and sustainable electricity generation and storage.

Official source

2020-09-22

manufacturing

Tesla hosted Battery Day

Tesla held its Battery Day event immediately after the 2020 Annual Meeting of Stockholders.

Official source

最新文章

公司研究 / / 10 分钟阅读

特斯拉真正的期权价值，可能不只在汽车

用期权组合的视角理解特斯拉：能源、自动驾驶、制造、软件和机器人。

财报笔记

预留给季度财报、电话会摘要、指引变化和管理层表述追踪。

风险

  • 电动车利润率压力
  • 自动驾驶落地风险
  • 估值中包含较高预期

时间线

2008

Roadster 让特斯拉成为电动车先锋。

2012

Model S 扩大高端电动车市场。

2020s

储能、充电、AI 和机器人逐渐成为投资叙事的重要部分。